29/11/2004 
Chances of european pig-producers in expanded european pig market - A comment by Andreas Beckhove, ISN market expert
Even if the demand of pigmeat will increase in the next five years significant by 15 percent, european pig-producers should look for chances right in front of th door. Here are the chances better than on markets far away like Japan and China.
The European pig market (EU-25) is the world’s second largest home market after the Chinese one. More than 150 million pigs are kept and 240 million pigs or 22 mio. tonnes of pigmeat are produced. Because of a self-sufficiency of around 107 % nearly 1.5 million tonnes must be exported.
New marketsfrom a German or European viewpoint are above all to be found in Eastern Europe. After all, 73 million new EU citizens represent a huge potential for growth. Tapping into new markets outside Europe will remain difficult in future due to the strong competition on the global market, especially from North and South America.
There are already initial indications that pig stocks in Eastern Europe have dropped by comparison with last year’s figures by some 10 %, while at the same time consumption has increased significantly in these countries.
The current investment activities in Central and East European countries by many internationally operating slaughtering companies (Danish Crown, Smithfield) should be seen against this background. Right now, Smithfield holds stocks of more than 30,000 sows and according to its own information plans to increase stocks annually by 10,000 sows. Despite this, the accession countries will probably have difficulties in maintaining their production level in the next ten years. This will also open up opportunities for German slaughtering companies that do not invest abroad, but rather expand their domestic capacities so that they can then export the processed products to Eastern Europe.
Due to its geographic location, the German pig sector is in an excellent position to participate in growing sales in Eastern Europe. German pig farmers, as the main suppliers of German slaughtering companies, are also likely to profit from this development. As the largest producer and consumer of pork in the EU, Germany will in future also be the hub of the European pig market. The North-West German price remains an important benchmark price for the whole of Europe.
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