It had already been written off by many. But how does the saying go? Those who are believed to be dead are the ones to live even longer!
Against all expectation, the pig cycle struck again at the beginning of the year, and now we’re given quite acceptable prices for carcass pigs – and it’s been for two months already!

The facts:
In Germany, bad news items pertaining to stock reductions are hunting one another. In almost all German Lands, structural changes are leaving their marks:

Fatteners

• Lower Saxony: minus 7 % fatteners
  
• North Rhine-Westphalia: minus 7.5 % fatteners
  
• Bavaria: minus 6 % fatteners
  
• Baden-Württemberg: minus 5 % fatteners
  
• Hesse: minus 12 % fatteners
  
• Brandenburg: minus 9 % fatteners
  
• Mecklenburg-West Pomerania: minus 3 % fatteners

And so on …

Breeding sows

• Lower Saxony: minus 1.9 % breeding sows
  
• North Rhine-Westphalia: minus 4.7 % breeding sows
  
• Bavaria: minus 4.9 % breeding sows
  
• Baden-Württemberg: minus 6.3 % breeding sows
  
• Hesse: minus 1 % breeding sows
  
• Brandenburg: minus 3 % breeding sows
  
• Mecklenburg-West Pomerania: minus 3 % breeding sows

And so on …

According to what we calculated, and all things considered, about 1 million carcass pigs are missing on the German market presently. In face of the declining sow stocks, one arrives at thinking that this could not just have been caused by last year’s heat wave and that the situation certainly won’t be changing swiftly.

Let’s take a look at what our neighbours are doing:
The Dutch will go on reducing their pig stock. The latest livestock counting results say that, compared to last year, the figures had declined by minus 3.8 to minus 8.2 percent in all weight categories. The most important reduction was observed for sows, which speaks for the continuation of the trend.
Even the Danes, who had always been spoiled by growth, seem to no longer feel the urge to expand. A much weaker growth in the Danish pig stocks was given proof of by the results of this 1st July’s livestock counting in Denmark. After having found a 3.9 % surplus in April (compared to 2003), the stock exceeded last year’s July figure by only 0.4 % on 1st July. The number of pregnant sows as well as the number of suckling sows even has been declining (by 0.8 % and 3.4 % respectively).
Now let’s take a look at Austria: There the pig stock slowly but surely is going down toward the 3-million-pigs mark. Compared to the previous year, the June 2004 livestock counting showed a clear minus in all groups of pigs, ranging from 3 % for breeding sows to 9 % for gilts.
Forwarding to Great Britain, we see that the pig stock has been decreasing for years now, resulting in a deteriorating self-sufficiency rate (which has gone down to about 62 % meanwhile). For this year, we find a measly 5 % decrease.
And no less, the French pig stock was decreased (even if by only 0.2 %). In relation to this, it must be regarded as a much more important fact that the number of sows has simultaneously gone down by a clear 2 %.

A similar situation reveals in Eastern Europe:
Poland there became most noteworthy with its 60 % share in all the new pigs which were added to Europe’s pig stocks after the EU enlargement to the East had been completed. By the end of March 2004, about 17.2 million fatteners were held in Poland (a 7.6 % decrease, compared to 2003). The number of sows had also decreased, by 10.08 %.
The same thing is going on in the Czech Republic and in Hungary. The Czech livestock counting showed a 7 % pig stock decrease in April 2004. As regards this year’s second quarter, the total production of pork went down by 6.3 %. Hungary, however, surpasses every other country! There -- believe it or not! -- the number of pigs fell by even 16 % compared to the year before.
Looking at them from the pig industry point of view, you don’t need to worry about forgetting all other EU acceding countries. They are of almost no importance for the EU market with regard to their range of productive capacity or export potential.
But, after all those bad news, there is one country in the EU indeed where -- in defiance of all adversities -- the pig stock has been considerably increased over the course of the last year. Compared to the previous year, the Spanish had clearly increased their pig stock by 6 % by April. The consequence of it is: Contrary to the usual Spanish summer upswing, the Spanish pig market is kind of inundated with pigs now. For that reason, the Spanish pig prices have fallen below German prices meanwhile. At the same time, however, the sow stock had only slightly been expanded by 0.8 %. It remains to be seen how the Spanish pig market will continue to develop. Even in Spain all good things will come to an end one day.

To sum it up:
It has been proven by the figures that the European offer continues to diminish clearly and lastingly. If pork goes on being demanded (which is to be expected), the pig prices will remain stable. This may also be gathered from the new EU member countries’ demand, which will rather increase than decrease.
Export remains the one and only uncertainty factor. Should the Russians, for example, carry out their threat to no longer import meat from the EU as from 1st October 2004, or should another weakening of the dollar make Germany’s position on the global market become more fragile, this would certainly leave its mark on the prices. Being dependent on export makes the EU pork market be very sensitive and prone; everyone should become aware of this. At present, however, there is no talk whatsoever of weak export; otherwise, the Danish never would have superseded the USA as the world’s major pork exporter on the Japanese market within the first quarter of 2004.
If export stays on a normal level, prices will remain stable and piglet prices will thus be positively changing sooner or later.