These days, the regional authorities are publishing temporary results of the latest livestock counting which was carried out on 3rd May 2005. Whilst figures showed a downward movement last year with regard to pig stock, the trend proves to be vice versa now.

Let’s take a look at the grand four only! About 75 percent of all pigs held in Germany are being held in Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg. Compared with the 2004 figures, an increase of pig stock was observed in these four federal states – and it increased to quite some extent indeed. NRW was clearest in growth with its 9.2 percent. Bavaria followed with 3.5 percent, then Lower Saxony moved up with 3.1 percent, and – last but not least – Baden-Wurttemberg reported a 2.2 percent increase.

Obviously, this increase in pig stock must be attributed to the pig feeders’ expanding their farms. In all those federal states which have already reported their figures, the fatteners’ stock has been expanded by far more than has the breeding sows’ stock. In NRW, for instance, the fatteners’ stock increased by 11.3 percent whereas the breeding sows’ stock grew by no more than 8.3 percent.

Difference proves to be even clearer in the other federal states: The Lower Saxony fatteners’ stock was expanded by 7.7 percent at the same time as sows were reduced in number by even 3.4 percent. The scene looks quite similar in Baden-Wurttemberg. There, the number of fatteners went up by 7.7 percent, too, while there were considerably less breeding sows.

So, what are the reasons for such clear increase in the number of fatteners in particular?
Certainly, the good return gained from carcass pigs was one of the decisive factors for expanding the fattening capacities last year. As a consequence, the stock was expanded and / or existing stables were made much better use of again.
However, the piglet producers mostly did not make a profit from the rapidly recovering prices. From this point of view, we can clearly make out the German piglet producers’ most serious problem: increasing piglet imports. Germany tends to become more and more of a pig feeders’ nation, because countries such as Denmark and the Netherlands invest more money into piglet production. Since conditions seem to be unfavourable there with regard to area being available to a limited extent only as well as regarding political framework, the producers sell their piglets to other countries and to Germany in particular.

Facing more and more competitors crowding onto the domestic piglet market does not leave the German sow keepers unaffected. Farms, the management and capacity of which are not as good as those of other farms are, tend to fall by the wayside due to ever intensifying structural changes – understandably enough. However, those changes are mostly being compensated for by the successful sow keepers’ expanding their farms. This way, the number of piglets increases with the number of sows remaining unchanged. New goals in breeding set by the breeding organisations – with regard to the number of weaners per sow per year – are suitable to support such trend. At long last, successful treatment of typical sow diseases (such as circovirus, for instance) also contributes to increasing numbers of piglets. Taking imports into consideration, too, one sees that all those factors result in surplus piglet production all over Germany.

Since they were not in the position to introduce appropriate advancement in breeding, the pig feeders expanded their fattening capacities. This may be regarded as one of the reasons for which the number of fatteners continues to increase whereas the number of sows stagnates or decreases at the same time. Brussels again and again underestimates this observable fact when making predictions in this field.

It appears to be another problem, the reasons for which must be attributed to the EU common agricultural policy, that the German bonus system was adjusted. Whilst bonuses paid for slaughter had been tightly joined to production so far, as well as other extra pays had, the farmer now is no longer obliged to keep bulls or cattle in order to be paid the respective bonus. As a consequence, many farmers drop out of cattle keeping for converting their stables to make them suitable for fattening. The results of livestock counting in the individual federal states clearly mirror this fact: Apart from some exceptions, 1 to 2 percent stock decreases in cattle keeping prove to be the rule. Fat beasts in particular are concerned by this, being reduced by a two-digit fall partly.

What must be made note of:
German pig feeders are doing a very competitive job and they are investing money in pig feeding – being motivated by having covered a comparably good year. At the same time, fattening capacities are being created at other places due to the debatable EU agricultural bonus policy.

As a consequence of progressive breeding and structural changes and successful treatment of typical sow diseases, the average productivity of breeding sows is growing. On the EU level, further specialization in pig keeping is going on. Germany is a place for livestock fattening in particular, with its good overall framework (such as: being close to the market, having enough area available to bring out slurry on it and presenting a competitive slaughter industry).

But the effect these developments may have on pig prices strongly depends also on the further developing of the pan-European pig stock. With regard to this, experts assume that pig production will be reduced slightly in 2005. On top of that, the global market proves to have an excellent absorption capacity.